BY JOHN ELLIS, FINANCIAL ADVISOR
Tony Benn, the late British socialist, once told David McWilliams in an interview that “the young and the old are bullied by the middle-aged”. His words ring true today as Ireland’s Department of Finance’s Future Forty report lays bare a troubling economic path for Ireland – a route that prioritises the pensions of the middle-aged over the prospects of the young, risking the stability of society in the process.
The Future Forty report, a 240-page analysis published by Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe, sets out over 2,000 scenarios for Ireland’s economy to 2065. It attempts to foster long-term thinking. But its central message is stark: an ageing population, declining corporate tax windfalls, and persistent housing shortages will strain public finances, with deficits potentially reaching 7.9% of Gross National Income (GNI*) by 2065 and national debt soaring to 148%.
The report projects health spending rising from 9% of national income today to 12.5% by 2065, costing €67 billion annually. Meanwhile, Ireland’s housing crisis is expected to persist until the 2040s, with demand peaking in the early 2030s.
The Government’s solution? Import tens of thousands of workers to strengthen the workforce and tax base, thereby offsetting demographic decline. Immigration, the report argues, could increase revenues to fund pensions and healthcare as the population ages, with the old-age dependency ratio projected to hit 55% by 2065. But this fix ignores a glaring issue, Ireland’s infrastructure, housing, transport, schools, and health services, are already overstretched. Net migration was 59,700 last year, outpacing the housing market’s capacity.
A better approach would be to cap net migration at 42,500 annually, through targeted visa policies until the housing supply increases.
This approach risks betraying the young. Take Sarah, a 25-year-old teacher paying 60% of her income on rent, unable to save for a home. Skyrocketing rents and unattainable homeownership are pushing many in their 20s toward emigration perhaps to Melbourne,17,000km away.
The report admits living standards will grow only 52% by 2065, with per-capita GNI growth slowing to 0.5% by the 2040s. Young people, burdened by uncertain finances, are delaying or forgoing starting families, exacerbating the very demographic crisis the government seeks to solve. As Tony Benn suggested, the middle-aged set the agenda, securing their pensions while the young bear the cost through unaffordable housing and uncertain futures.
The report’s reliance on volatile corporate tax windfalls, projected to rise to €32 billion in 2025 and €34 billion in 2026, adds another layer of risk. These revenues driven by big tech and pharma face decline from 2030 due to US protectionism and tax changes.
The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council warns that spending rose by 8% to €87.1 billion in 2025’s first 10 months, outpacing revenue growth. Health spending alone increased by 5.8% against a planned 4.1%. This “deterioration” in the fiscal balance, coupled with over-reliance on temporary taxes, echoes the UK’s squandered North Sea oil windfall, while Norway’s far-sighted savings, with a sovereign wealth fund worth more than €1.3 trillion, offer a cautionary contrast.
Instead of chasing growth through immigration, Ireland should stabilise demand to align with housing supply. Prioritising affordable homes over pension funding would give young people a stake in society and encourage family growth.
The Government’s unprecedented surpluses, €8-9 billion annually, offer a window to invest strategically in infrastructure and housing, but only if short-term thinking does not derail long-term planning. Ignoring looming threats invites disaster. Ireland must act now or risk being a country with a generation priced out and pushed away.
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