AS I SEE IT
BY MARIANNE HERON
We have barely recovered from Trump’s resurrection and now our own General Election is underway. These are different times. The old certainties and party loyalties no longer apply as politics become more volatile. Many voters haven’t yet made up their minds, if the previous election is anything to judge by, where 50% hadn’t decided their preferences when the campaign began.
In just a year the political landscape has changed. Sinn Fein’s former popularity has tumbled, leaving them with only an18p% share of the vote, level with independents according to one recent poll; Fine Gael have surged to 24p% thanks to new leader Simon Harris’ boost, ahead of Fianna Fail at around 20p% with the smaller parties around or below 5%.
Housing, child care costs and immigration are big issues. A three-way coalition is one the cards but who will the third partner be? A left alliance might make sense and the Greens place as a junior partner isn’t guaranteed, given their unpopularity in rural constituencies.
When every vote counts what is most likely to make us turn out to the polls or sway our preferences? In the time of the Tik Tok Taoiseach will it be social media or good old fashioned doorstepping?
There is no doubt that social media can be a powerful influence, look no further than online campaigns like ‘Black Lives Matter’ or ‘Me Too’. It can also be a double-edged sword, provoking responses like the Dublin riot or turning people off with misinformation. But it is likely to be most effective with younger voters and, according to psychologist Sophie Janicke-Bowles in Psychology Today, where the most effective influence here is friends texting each other about their voting intentions, social media also reaches those without political affiliation.
“Using social media to consume news and engage with socially or politically active groups has shown a positive influence on offline civic actions, such as volunteering, attending political meetings, donating or working for campaigns, and even voting. Specifically, individuals who are more likely to abstain from voting, including minority groups and low-income voters, are nevertheless engaged politically on social media, thus showing social media’s compensatory potential for the otherwise politically disengaged.”
But it seems that door-to-door may still be the most effective way of moving the needle when it comes to voter mobilisation, according to a study carried out on voter preference for the European Study of Political Research. This looked at the location of the homes of candidates and location of voters which confirmed that canvassing has a positive impact on the choice of candidate, independent of geography. But the biggest effect of canvassing seems to be in persuading voters to go to the polls, by reminding them of their democratic duty, especially if they believe that there is going to be a high turnout.
The advantage of feet on the street is that they don’t cost anything, aside from the fliers posted in letterboxes or pressed into residents’ hands. Doorstepping can be an interesting study in body language, people pro-candidate and party tend to step forward smiling, non-supporters step back arms crossed, wearing a guarded expression. But canvassing has its dangers, fierce dogs aside, given the assault of Green Party leader Roderick O’Gorman.
Political parties are not allowed to advertise on TV or radio so social media represents a golden opportunity to get their message across, golden in both senses, with the big parties shelling out tens of thousands on varied campaigns.
In the local and European elections €750,000 was spent with Meta, Facebook and other platforms and, according to Liz Carolan at The Briefing, that was already ramping up last week with Sinn Fein already spending €50,000 as parties tested different messages.
All those faces on lampposts are not popular and they have been banned in some Tidy Town areas but they do provide voters with important information, particularly in secondary elections, Dr Theresa Reidy of UCC has argued. One survey carried out in Cork City found that in local elections voter turnout could be as much as 8% lower in no poster areas.
If Trump’s 11th hour victory tells us anything, it’s that having a clear message is what counts most, regardless of whether the promise will materialise.
