AS I SEE IT
BY MARIANNE HERON
We have seen the results of plenty of wheeling and dealing recently. Some of the bargaining has resulted in deals being struck, while some have been abandoned or fallen apart. By far the most dramatic has been the sudden agreement between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire in the appalling war which has cost the lives of 46,876 Palestinians since the war began, following the 2023 atrocity by Hamas.
On the political home front there has been plenty of bargaining with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael making a deal for their aspirational programme for Government and then seeking partnerships to secure their majority. Match-making behind closed doors didn’t work for Labour or the Social Democrats but just might lead the two leftwing parties getting into bed together.
Meantime, both coalition parties have to get enough out of the deal to satisfy them and establish trust that the Programme for Government is going to work but there may be more going on under the table than the apparent bargaining position on the surface.
Would the sweetheart deal with the Regional Independent Group (RIG) and the main parties have happened without Michael Lowry, welding the group together and getting himself closer to the levers of power and sidestepping the opprobrium surrounding him following the findings of the McCracken and Moriarty tribunals in the process?
One of the first rules of negotiation is that you have to have something to bargain with. The main parties have argued that they ceded nothing to the Independents or to Healy-Rae brothers Michael and Danny who have been added to the Coalition mix like pearls in the oyster. But it is hard to believe that those juicy junior and super junior ministries didn’t figure in the guarantees for political loyalty.
We all make bargains, the everyday kind with ourselves and family members, usually involving straightforward proposition and reward as in “Finish your dinner and you can watch some TV” or “If I lose 5kg I can get a new dress”. But in other cases the stakes involved are complex and enormous, and can take years to resolve.
How come, for instance, that the deal for an Israel/Hamas ceasefire and hostage return, which had eluded outgoing President Joe Biden, diplomat Antony Blinken and the efforts of Qatari and other negotiators behind the proposals for months and months, fall so suddenly into place for January 19?
President Donald Trump claims that one word explained the deal – ‘Trump’! It was a bit more complicated than that though: Trump wanted to look good for his inauguration on January 20 and made an offer he couldn’t resist to his buddy Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop the bombing which has reduced Gaza to rubble, displacing the starving population.
While it’s wonderful to see the traumatised children and adults of Gaza celebrating in the ceasefire in the streets, the fragile six week’s deal is only a small beginning. Ahead lie the challenges to reach further agreements over who will run Gaza, how to rebuild its shattered homes and hospitals and how Israelis and Palestinians can share their territory. It could happen, though, that Trump, who is said to have no regard for the Palestinians, may about turn and return to encouraging Netanyahu to ‘finish the job’.
What might be the key to finding resolution to challenging conflicts? The Art Of The Deal, a 1987 bestseller, according to the cover is by none other than Donald Trump, who says he can end the Russia/Ukraine war in a day. Both the title and the authorship of Trump’s favourite book – after the Bible – are misleading. Trump didn’t write the content which is part memoir part business advice, but co-author Tony Schwartz.
Maybe negotiators in the Middle East conflict could learn from the Peace Process in Northern Ireland. Facilitator in the Good Friday Agreement and many other accords, Bertie Ahern, said on News Talk recently that such talks should be as inclusive and as comprehensive as possible.
“If you can get buy-in from the start with clarity and certainty from day one then you have a better chance of moving on to the next stage.”
Facilitating conflict resolution isn’t easy; key ingredients include empathy, good listening and solution focus.
I like the advice of a wise friend: “Give people what they need, not what they say they want!”
