AS I SEE IT
BY MARIANNE HERON
Listening to Paschal Donohue is usually soothing. The Finance Minister is reassuring, his tone almost like a lullaby but the other day he startled me. In an interview on Newstalk, commenting on the current state of affairs, he said that uncertainty now was greater than during Covid.
While there is no such thing as certainty, the thought was decidedly unsettling, especially when remembering the apocalyptic effect of the pandemic when normal life shut down. Now we have the Trump unpredictability effect, tariffs threats and war on Ukraine and Gaza to upset things. On cue for unpredictability, the deadline to negotiate a trade agreement between the EU and US and avoid President Trump imposing tariffs on imports into the US was shifted last week from July 9 to August 1, followed by threats to impose 30% tariffs.
Too much uncertainty impacts both business and individuals. It can be a barrier to achieving objectives, where it’s not the uncertainty itself but the risk it poses to successful outcomes and worrying over the ‘what if ‘ element of uncertainty can add to stress. So how can we cope with the impact of not knowing what is going to happen?
The challenge posed by the uncertainty over President Trump’s tariffs on exports to the US, “can make a huge impact with the withdrawal of investment and when decisions are put on hold, “ says John Hurley CEO of the Kilkenny Chamber of Commerce, representing 300 members employing around 30,000 in the city and county.
“Local businesses are no stranger to facing challenges of uncertainty,” he said. “In the past decade we have had to grapple with Brexit which had a huge effect, [UK] being our biggest market; Covid and the knock-on effect of the war in Ukraine which had an effect particularly on the hospitality sector where the cost of energy went up hugely.”
Resilience is a word we hear a lot, says Hurley, and it seems local entrepreneurs are following the advice of Matt Watkinson, author of Mastering Uncertainty, by turning adversity to advantage and increasing the odds in their favour. Business strategies include
seeking alternative markets and online marketing. “An important point is that people need to give to support to local businesses too,”says Hurley. The Kilkenny Gift Card scheme, which allows employers to reward staff tax-free, encourages this.
Red Sky Europe’s services are dedicated to helping customers fulfill their export objectives and the company were winners of the International Trade category in the Kilkenny Chamber of Commerce Business Awards 2024. The company, founded by Ken Byrne in 2019, provides the logistics for their 60 clients to export to up to 150 countries around the world and now employs 60. Their US-centric customers are keeping calm and carrying on,”The belief is that the tariff situation will have to be resolved and they are holding firm, says Red Sky’s CEO Ger Egan. Theirs is a positive story, where the service allows to concentrate of their core business while Red Sky provides support and expertise in areas like warehousing, VAT labelling and customer service and provides services via partnerships in export destinations.
On an individual level dealing with uncertainty may be unsettling but it can also be energising, acting as a wake-up call and a prompt to try different solutions. It is also about choosing to respond rather than to have a knee-jerk reaction to the cause of discomfort. Trump’s tariff threats and the unpredictability of what he is going to do next to upset the status quo are designed to rattle us. Become afraid of him and we give him the power he wants to exert over us.
Things that help when the future isn’t clear is having support – friends or colleagues to talk things over with can help build confidence. Doing a stock take of your own strengths and using them to achieve something adds to a sense of mastery and being in control rather than being at the mercy of outside forces. Having a purpose and getting on with things that you can do, rather than fretting over things you have no control over provides a counterbalance to the unknown.
Sometimes some of those old sayings are good to remember like the one that goes: “God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things that I can and the wisdom to know the difference.”
